Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
Ahead of the March 15 Budget, some of the most important data released in February are worth reviewing to gain insight into what flexibility and room for policy manoeuvre the Chancellor may or may not have available. These are price inflation, wage inflation, economic growth, public sector borrowing figures and money supply. The essential news …
Continue reading “Key UK economic data to consider ahead of Budget 2023”
With inflation continuing to rise and central banks reacting by raising interest rates, the critical question must be how high will rates have to rise to curb inflationary pressure? To do that, we need to consider what a ‘neutral’ interest rate – one that kept prices steady – would look like, and how much higher …
UK government debt is running at £400 billion a year or 20% of GDP. Money supply growth is rising by nearly 14% per annum and the ratio of outstanding debt GDP – 85% of the economy just last year – is set to be around 108% of GDP in the 2020/2021 financial year. Surely that’s …
Continue reading “Why price inflation will remain low even with record debt”