Following a sharp rise in inflation precipitated initially by the supply-side disruption as the pandemic ended and supply lagged demand, then the Russian invasion of Ukraine, central banks are tightening policy. The US Federal Reserve is at the forefront of this charge, raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s. There is no …
A look ahead to what 2022 may bring – turbulence
As a wit once said, forecasting is extremely difficult, especially about the future. With good reason, as some events occur only once in a century. Yet, we’ve had two of those ‘black swan’ type of events in the last ten years. So, this is not attempting to forecast what will occur this year; it is …
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UK monetary policy to remain on hold, for now
In June this year, annual UK consumer price inflation on the central banks preferred measure (CPIH) hit 2.4%, marginally above the 2% target and the highest level since the pandemic started in 2019. It was a rate last seen in August 2018. For some commentators, it was a vindication of the view that the Bank …
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