Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
Following on from my last blog, which reviewed the history of poor fiscal forecasting in the UK and considered whether this was due to an overestimation of growth, or receipts, or an underestimation of spending or, indeed, all three, this blog looks at the effects of this persistent misstep. Political optimism vs Economic facts: The …
Continue reading “Fiscal forecast errors part 2 – the political and financial implications”
Ahead of the announcement of the third fiscal event the Labour administration has had since winning the General Election last year, let’s delve into the second budget to look at forecast errors and why they matter. A significant issue has surfaced: for the second time in a row, the chancellor is compelled to raise new …
Continue reading “Fiscal forecast errors part 1 – what’s going on?”
Fertility, longevity, migration, and age distribution are not just social statistics – they impact productivity, savings, inflation, and interest rates. In this article, I’d like to focus on what this means for the UK in the context of the third consecutive year of a decline in its fertility rate. This fell to 1.41% in 2024 …
Continue reading “The UK is ageing fast: the risks and benefits”