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Trevor Williams

Trevor Williams

Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.

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Tag: unemployment

Posted on 19th November 2023

Economic data show a turning point has been reached in the cycle

With inflation falling sharply in the US, the eurozone, and the UK, there is no longer a debate about whether the peak in interest rates has been reached. Instead, there is a consensus about rate cuts being the next move, not rate rises and about when that will happen, not if. Financial markets are now …

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Posted on 23rd June 2023

Bank rate overkill? Could a 5% rise trigger recession?

As expected by current financial markets pricing, the Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates to 5% in June, half a per cent up from the May level of 4.5%. The increase was not unanimous, just as the previous one was not, with two members voting to leave rates at 4.5%. Interestingly, the two members …

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Posted on 9th February 2023

UK Bank rate has peaked

At its February 2023 Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank of England signalled the peak in the Bank rate had been reached. What are the likely reasons for this? Ten interest rate hikes have taken the rate from 0.1% to 4%. The effect has been a housing market in sharp reverse, business failures beginning to rise, …

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Recent Posts

  • An election Budget that does not address UK challenges
  • Economic data show a turning point has been reached in the cycle
  • Bank of England base rate on hold, but cuts could be coming sooner than it forecasts
  • Watch out for the deflationary impact of a tight monetary stance
  • Bank rate overkill? Could a 5% rise trigger recession?

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