Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
With inflation falling sharply in the US, the eurozone, and the UK, there is no longer a debate about whether the peak in interest rates has been reached. Instead, there is a consensus about rate cuts being the next move, not rate rises and about when that will happen, not if. Financial markets are now …
Continue reading “Economic data show a turning point has been reached in the cycle”
As expected by current financial markets pricing, the Bank of England (BOE) raised interest rates to 5% in June, half a per cent up from the May level of 4.5%. The increase was not unanimous, just as the previous one was not, with two members voting to leave rates at 4.5%. Interestingly, the two members …
Continue reading “Bank rate overkill? Could a 5% rise trigger recession?”
Friday’s mini-Budget was anything but small. It’s the biggest tax-cutting Budget since the ‘Barber’ boom Budget of 1972 or 50 years ago. Unfortunately, the parallels are not good, as that Budget did not end well. Eventually, it led to the loss of a general election by Conservative prime minister Ted Heath. Time will …
Continue reading “Mini Budget 2022: all the money is on tax cuts”