Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
Following on from my last blog, which reviewed the history of poor fiscal forecasting in the UK and considered whether this was due to an overestimation of growth, or receipts, or an underestimation of spending or, indeed, all three, this blog looks at the effects of this persistent misstep. Political optimism vs Economic facts: The …
Continue reading “Fiscal forecast errors part 2 – the political and financial implications”
Ahead of the announcement of the third fiscal event the Labour administration has had since winning the General Election last year, let’s delve into the second budget to look at forecast errors and why they matter. A significant issue has surfaced: for the second time in a row, the chancellor is compelled to raise new …
Continue reading “Fiscal forecast errors part 1 – what’s going on?”
Rachel Reeves’s budget statement in response to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) update aligned with what was widely flagged ahead of the event. However, it highlighted just how little room there is for manoeuvre in the government’s fiscal projections and how vulnerable the plans are to unfolding events. Admittedly, huge geopolitical and geoeconomic changes …
Continue reading “UK Spring statement 2025: little room for manoeuvre”