Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
Ahead of the announcement of the third fiscal event the Labour administration has had since winning the General Election last year, let’s delve into the second budget to look at forecast errors and why they matter. A significant issue has surfaced: for the second time in a row, the chancellor is compelled to raise new …
Continue reading “Fiscal forecast errors part 1 – what’s going on?”
As expected, the Bank of England left interest rates on hold at its November quarterly meeting. Three members were still calling for rate hikes of a ¼ of one per cent even though the Bank of England lowered its forecast for GDP growth in 2024 from half a per cent to zero and its forecast …
Global financial markets are seeing the most significant banking market-driven turmoil since 2008/9, the first bank failures in the US since Washington Mutual in 2008 and a sharp fall in bank stocks. US monetary authorities reacted quickly, injecting liquidity, and guaranteeing deposits. But bank stocks around the world are generally lower than they were before …
Continue reading “A rerun of 2008 or a ‘Storm in a Teacup’?”