Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
With inflation falling sharply in the US, the eurozone, and the UK, there is no longer a debate about whether the peak in interest rates has been reached. Instead, there is a consensus about rate cuts being the next move, not rate rises and about when that will happen, not if. Financial markets are now …
Continue reading “Economic data show a turning point has been reached in the cycle”
Some of the policies announced by the Bank of England at its last meeting (21 September 2023) are flying under the financial markets radar. Although attention was rightly focused on the Bank of England’s decision to leave interest rates on hold at 5.25% – the first hold in 14 meetings –another announcement at the meeting …
Continue reading “Watch out for the deflationary impact of a tight monetary stance”
At its February 2023 Monetary Policy meeting, the Bank of England signalled the peak in the Bank rate had been reached. What are the likely reasons for this? Ten interest rate hikes have taken the rate from 0.1% to 4%. The effect has been a housing market in sharp reverse, business failures beginning to rise, …