Optimism at the start of 2022 that, with the end of the pandemic, the UK was on the cusp of a period of robust and steady growth, was dashed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February. Although the headline average annual growth rate is 4%, it is highly misleading. The economy is in recession. …
Has the Chancellor tightened policy too much?
Framed as a budget to shrink debt and control inflation, Jeremy Hunt’s statement in the fifth fiscal event of this year essentially left most of the heavy lifting to 2025 and beyond. Of the measures announced, some three quarters were spending cuts, and just one quarter were tax increases. Of the £61.7 billion fiscal tightening …
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The extraordinarily low-interest rate era is ending – what are the implications for financial markets and policymakers?
Following a sharp rise in inflation precipitated initially by the supply-side disruption as the pandemic ended and supply lagged demand, then the Russian invasion of Ukraine, central banks are tightening policy. The US Federal Reserve is at the forefront of this charge, raising interest rates at the fastest pace since the 1980s. There is no …