Financial markets are betting this week that the Bank of England will not cut its key interest rates but leave them on hold at 4.75%. The market consensus from Trading Economics is that the 9-strong committee on Thursday, the 19th, will vote 8:1 to leave the UK Bank rate at 4.75%. That is despite annual …
Immediate reaction to the October Budget, 2024
This is the first Labour Budget since 2010, and the first by a woman in UK history. It is aimed at raising economic growth in the long run, funded by tax rises and increased borrowing in the short term. The tax rises mainly came from employers’ National Insurance contributions and employers’ contributions to pensions, which …
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Interest rates can be cut now
One of the oddities about the narrative on the direction of interest rates is the argument that, because consumer price inflation is still above the 2% target, the Bank of England cannot cut interest rates. That suggests that interest rate policy changes immediately impact the current inflation rate in the short term. However, this view …