Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
Ahead of the announcement of the third fiscal event the Labour administration has had since winning the General Election last year, let’s delve into the second budget to look at forecast errors and why they matter. A significant issue has surfaced: for the second time in a row, the chancellor is compelled to raise new …
Continue reading “Fiscal forecast errors part 1 – what’s going on?”
The UK’s fiscal position is not just precarious; it is on the brink of becoming unsustainable. With just one more crisis, like the global financial crisis and the Pandemic that we’ve experienced in the last 20 years, the situation could escalate rapidly. A return to strong growth would reduce this risk but will be a …
Continue reading “UK fiscal position: one event away from crisis”
Rachel Reeves’s budget statement in response to the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) update aligned with what was widely flagged ahead of the event. However, it highlighted just how little room there is for manoeuvre in the government’s fiscal projections and how vulnerable the plans are to unfolding events. Admittedly, huge geopolitical and geoeconomic changes …
Continue reading “UK Spring statement 2025: little room for manoeuvre”