Economist, Visiting Professor, Lecturer, Writer, Public Speaker.
As a wit once said, forecasting is extremely difficult, especially about the future. With good reason, as some events occur only once in a century. Yet, we’ve had two of those ‘black swan’ type of events in the last ten years. So, this is not attempting to forecast what will occur this year; it is …
Continue reading “A look ahead to what 2022 may bring – turbulence”
Although I hate being a Jeremiah, some things are worth worrying about. The UK’s potential energy position over the winter is very vulnerable to a crisis, especially if the weather is colder than average. Although long-run forecasts suggest the winter is likely to be wetter than usual rather than colder than usual (at least compared …
In June this year, annual UK consumer price inflation on the central banks preferred measure (CPIH) hit 2.4%, marginally above the 2% target and the highest level since the pandemic started in 2019. It was a rate last seen in August 2018. For some commentators, it was a vindication of the view that the Bank …
Continue reading “UK monetary policy to remain on hold, for now”