SMPC Press Coverage May 2024

The Spectator: Why the Bank of England must cut interest rates
The Spectator: Why the Bank of England must cut interest rates
Express - Interest rates: Andrew Bailey drops huge hint at when BoE could drop from 5.25%

Recession may force BoE to slash base rate next yearMortgage Solutions

Media Coverage May 2023:

As expected by financial markets, the Bank of England has raised interest rates by a quarter of one per cent to 4.5 per cent. At the same time, it upgraded its growth forecasts by the largest amount on record, from a recession to stability. This higher growth, combined with concern that inflation is not falling as quickly as food prices continue to rise, prompted the increase in interest rates. The danger now is that the Bank will find itself overcompensating. Growth in prices is already outstripping growth in incomes by around 4 per cent per year. Money supply growth is slowing fast and suggests that we could face deflation in just two years time. The Bank of England’s own forecasts show inflation well below its 2pc target by the end of the same time frame. Focusing today on the current backward-looking inflation rate risks missing the fact that rate rises take 2 years to have their full effect.

Telegraph – Read More

The Bank of England has raised interest rates to their highest level since 2008 in the wake of revelations that inflation remained uncomfortably high. The base rate rise from 4.25% to 4.5% represents the 12th successive increase in the cost of borrowing by the central bank since it started raising rates in December 2021 and follows similar moves by the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. Reaction was swift as it confirmed earlier predictions. In terms of controlling inflation, it was unnecessary, according to a group of independent economists that shadow the Bank’s Monetary Policy Committee. The Institute of Economic Affairs’ Shadow Monetary Policy Committee believe that the Bank is overfocusing on current inflation and not enough on the sharp reduction in the money supply – which will bring inflation under control within the next two years, as shown by the Bank’s official forecasts.

Director of Finance – Read More

Millions of Britons are facing painful increases in their mortgage costs after the Bank of England raised interest rates for the 12th time in a row to tackle “stubbornly high” inflation. The Bank rejected accusations that it had gone too far and was “overcorrecting” for the inflation crisis after the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to hike the base interest rate from 4.25 per cent to 4.5 per cent. The central bank warned inflation is set to decline less rapidly this year than hoped because food price hikes have gone on longer than expected, partly due to the Ukraine war and poor harvests in Europe. Left-wing IPPR think tank said the Bank should have held off raising interest rates again, warning of a “continued increase in inequality”. And right-wing think tank the Institute of Economic Affairs also warned that the Bank was at risk of “overcorrecting”.

Independent – Read More

The central bank announced the decision to increase its rate by 0.25 per cent today with a hint that it could peak at 4.75 per cent by the end of 2023. With inflation remaining in the double figures despite the base rate rising for the 12 month in a row, some commentators wondered if it was time for the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to change tack. Trevor Williams, chair of the Institute of Economic Affairs’ shadow Monetary Policy Committee and former chief economist at Lloyds Bank, echoed these views and said: “Just as the Bank of England failed to identify inflationary pressures at the tail end of the Covid-19 pandemic, they may be once again focusing too much on present inflation rather than long run trends. The sharp reduction in the money supply points towards inflation coming down quickly over the coming two years.  “Inflation could still dip to around one per cent over the next two to three years and even after adjusting for the bank’s revised forecast suggesting stronger growth, it is expected to undershoot the two per cent target. This trajectory indicates interest rates need not go up any further.”

Mortgage Solutions – Read More

Institute of Export & International Trade Will Hunt's Spring Budget lead to growth or stability?Trevor Williams casts his eye over Jeremy Hunt’s first full budget.

SFNet presents In The Know

On the Sidelines with Trevor Williams, podcastIn this podacst Barry Bobrow is in discussion with Trevor Williams on the sidelines of the SFNet 78th Annual Convention, November 2022 in Austin, Texas

Global Mobility Report Q1 2023

Henley Passport Power: A Causal Link between Access and Growth

The Henley Passport Index (HPI) features significant insights into the economic benefits of visa-free access and the economic prospects of the countries and individuals involved. Let’s start by assessing the passport power of countries ranked by their share of global gross domestic product (GDP) versus the HPI, as shown in the firm’s latest research.
Global Mobility Report Q1 2023 Henley Passport Power: A Causal Link between Access and GrowthRead the full press release here.

High interest and Inflation rates

High Interest and inflation rates are squeezing UK SMEs, but what do they actually mean for business finance? High Interest and inflation rates are squeezing UK SMEs, but what do they actually mean for business finance?

TRT World

Gross Domestic Product: Is there a better measure of well-being?

Economics Echo Podcast: Autumn Budget 2021

AUTUMN BUDGET 2021: THE TREVOR WILLIAMS PERSPECTIVE!

No deal Brexit could keep mortgage rates down

That was the consensus from UK economists and Ray Boulger, senior technical manager of John Charcol.

Institute of Economic Affairs

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee Monthly Vote

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How and where to invest in 2022

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Summary takeaways from the Budget today so far

The £2,000 Pension Salary Sacrifice Cap: Fairness or a Blow to Savings?

When the Chancellor announced a £2,000 annual cap on salary sacrifice into pensions, it appeared as a minor adjustment. However, it could significantly influence the UK’s pension incentive structure, potentially altering saving behaviour, workplace culture, and long‑term capital markets, which warrants closer examination.

A fiscal grab framed as fairness?

Salary sacrifice has long been a tax‑efficient way for employees to boost pension contributions. By giving up part of their salary in exchange for employer pension payments, workers save not only on income tax but also on National Insurance. For higher earners, the savings could be substantial.

The new cap, effective from April 2029, restricts this advantage to the first £2,000 of sacrificed salary. For higher earners, this means they can no longer benefit from tax and NIC savings beyond that threshold, potentially reducing their overall incentives. Lower earners, who typically sacrifice less than £2,000, remain unaffected, which raises questions about the actual fairness and distribution of benefits across income groups.

Incentives Rebalanced — But at What Cost?

For lower earners, the incentive to save remains intact. They continue to enjoy tax relief and NIC savings on modest contributions, preserving pensions as the cornerstone of retirement planning.

For higher earners, however, the calculus changes. The cap removes the extra NIC advantage, reducing the appeal of salary sacrifice. Many may redirect savings into ISAs (lower now?), property, or other vehicles that offer greater flexibility. Employers, too, lose part of the incentive to promote salary sacrifice schemes, potentially weakening workplace pension culture.

The Treasury’s logic is to preserve incentives for mass participation while curbing disproportionate benefits at the top. However, a potential consequence is a decline in pension inflows, which could reduce long-term capital available for investments in equities and infrastructure, possibly affecting market stability and economic growth.

A deeper point is that the UK does not save enough and spends too much relative to its wealth, leading to a chronic current account deficit and reliance on foreign borrowing. This move to cap pension salary sacrifice further reduces savings, which could worsen the country’s fiscal challenges and impact long-term economic resilience. 

A Two‑Decade Tightening Cycle

This reform is not an isolated measure but part of a broader trajectory. Since the lifetime allowance was introduced in 2006, successive governments have narrowed pension reliefs for higher earners:

• 2006: Lifetime allowance set at £1.5m, later cut repeatedly.

• 2016: Annual allowance tapering introduced, reducing relief for incomes above £260,000.

• 2024: Lifetime allowance abolished, replaced by new lump sum limits.

• 2029: Salary sacrifice cap imposed.

The policy seeks to preserve incentives for lower earners while restricting them for higher earners to raise revenue. Each reform has been framed as fairer, but collectively they risk undermining pensions as a long‑term savings vehicle for those with the capacity to save more. The result has been the same: to raise more money.

Equity vs. Efficiency

The cap highlights a tension at the heart of pension policy. On the one hand, equity demands that tax reliefs do not disproportionately benefit the wealthy. On the other hand, efficiency requires strong incentives for all earners to save for retirement. By narrowing reliefs, the government may achieve Fairness, but at the cost of efficiency, discouraging higher earners from using pensions and reducing the capital available for long‑term investment.

The Bigger Picture

There was a fiscal hole to fill, and this is seen as one way to help fill it. Moreover, with the ‘triple lock’, pensioners have seen their income rise relative to other income groups over time. 

But this cap may also lead to a shift in savings behaviour. Pension funds could see reduced inflows, potentially changing asset allocation patterns. Future pensioners might save less, increasing the risk of poverty among retirees and raising social security costs, which highlights the importance of considering long-term social impacts in the debate.

Ultimately, the £2,000 cap is not just a technical adjustment but the latest chapter in a 20‑year tightening cycle. As much as any other item of fiscal policy, pensioners are not immune to the pressure put on the public purse.

Whether it proves to be a fair rebalance or a blow to savings will depend on how individuals, employers, and financial markets respond. I don’t think it will be positively.