The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC)

The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) is a group of independent economists, which has met once a quarter since July 1997 at the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) to monitor the Monetary Policy Committee’s Bank Rate decisions, and to make rate recommendations of its own.

Trevor Williams is Joint Chairman with Dr Andrew Lilico, Visiting Professor, Europe Economics.

IEA Shadow Monetary Policy Committee Minutes

December 2017
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes to raise Bank Rate in December.

In its December email poll, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted to raise Bank rate by seven to two. All of those that voted to increase Bank rate wanted to see ¼%. The bias of all nine members was for further tightening, but gradually.

October 2017
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes unanimously to raise Bank Rate in November.

At its October 2017 face-to-face meeting, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted unanimously to raise Bank rate in November. This outcome is the most decisive vote in well over ten years. Of the nine, six wanted to see an immediate hike of ½%, while three preferred to see a ¼% increase.

September 2017
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes eight / one to raise Bank Rate in September.

In its e-mail poll for September – the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by eight votes to one to raise Bank rate. Five members voted to raise Base rate by 50bps. Three voted to raise by ¼%, and one was to hold.

July 2017
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes eight / one to raise Bank Rate in August.

At a quarterly face-to-face meeting in July, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by eight votes to one to raise Bank rate. Three members voted to raise Base rate by 50bps. Five voted to raise by ¼% and one voted to hold.

April 2017
Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes seven/two to rise Bank Rate in May

At its April 2017 face-to-face meeting, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) voted by seven to two, to raise Bank rate in May. Three members voted to raise Base rate by 50bps. Four voted to raise by ¼%.

March 2017

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes seven/two to rise Bank Rate in March

In its March 2017 e-mail poll, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) elected, by a vote of Seven to Two, to raise rates in March. Three members voted for an immediate rise of 0.5%. Fourther favoured a 0.25% rise.

January 2017

Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes six/three to raise Bank Rate in February

At its most recent face-to-face meeting, the Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) elected, by a vote of six to three, to raise the rate by 25 bps in February. Two members voted to raise Base rate by 50bps. There was unanimous bias to raise rates in the near future.

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