China – down but not out

In last week’s blog I mentioned the over-valued credit markets in China as a key risk to financial market stability. This week saw Moody’s downgrading of China’s credit rating and its outlook for China changed from stable to negative. The slowing of growth Despite economic stimulus, GDP growth has fallen pretty steadily since 2010 and …

The calm before the storm – why market buoyancy could be a false premise

Both equity and bond markets are riding high, suggesting an over-valuation in financial markets that is unsustainable over the longer-term. The equity market in the US and Europe stands at a record high, whilst the bond markets appear to be shrugging off concerns around inflation and over-leverage. The bullishness we see in both markets creates …

Fantasy tax plans?

Headlines reporting new US tax plans were misleading. What we’ve got was little more than Trump’s wish list – a re-statement of promises made during his election campaign, comprising a proposal of radical changes to taxation in the US. In the broadest sense, an overhaul of the incredibly complex system of taxation in the US …